EightCount Fight Prediction: Who Will Be the Middleweight King?

Fight fans here we go!!!! We are just one day away from the most anticipated fight of the year – Saul Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady “GGG” Golovkin for the title of Undisputed Middleweight Champion. Both fighters have been in Las Vegas for the last week doing press conferences, interviews, autograph signings and more as they engage with rabid boxing fans. Today, both fighters stepped on the scale, weighing in at a lean, ripped 160 pounds even.  Undoubtedly, both fights will hydrate considerably over the next twenty-four ours and we predict that they will both walk into the ring closer to 175 pounds.


This slideshow requires JavaScript.

We here at EightCount.tv have received numerous phone calls, text messages and emails with fans of EightCount asking who do we think will win this fight? Is Canelo going to deliver Gennady his first loss? Or will Canelo end up on the canvas for a ten-count like so many of Gennady’s past opponents? Well, after reviewing previous fights for both fighters and crunching fight data via our proprietary fight prediction algorithm (cue the drumroll) we predict……

CANELO ALVAREZ will defeat Gennady Golovkin by a close majority decision, in what will turn out to be the best fight we’ve seen in the last ten years, and become the undisputed middleweight champion of the world.

canelo-golovkin-weights (28)

Here’s why:

Skilled Youth Beats Older Power

Over the his last five fights, Canelo has a lower “get hit percentage”, as fighters have landed on average 23.9% of their punches against Canelo while GGG’s last five opponents have landed on average 30.2% of their punches. What is more telling is that a majority of that difference between Canelo and Golovkin comes in the form of power punches that opponents have landed against Golovkin vs. Canelo. Opponents have landed on average 65.8 power punches against Golovkin, while Canelo’s opponents have only landed 53.6 power punches. This equates to a 29.7 power punch get hit percentage for Alvarez vs. 36.7 power punch get hit percentage for Golovkin. Alternatively, Canelo and Golovkin land power punches at roughly the same percentage on average, 46.3% and 48.7%, respectively.

When it comes to jabs, while Golovkin has landed at a higher percentage than Alvarez against his last five opponents, 39.2% versus 25.6%, respectively; again opponents have landed a higher percentage of their jabs against Golovkin than against Canelo, 20.9% versus 17.2%, respectively.

What this tells me is that Canelo has superior defensive skills. Simply put he gets hit less. These statistics over the last five fights also indicate that Gennady Golovkin is able to use his jab to control fights, but he is not as defensively savvy when it comes to avoiding power punches. This could be a tell-tell sign of Gennady’s age versus Canelo’s youth.

Moreover, when looking at punch output over the course of a fight, both fighters have thrown on average 370 total punches per fight, with Canelo throwing far more power punches than jabs and Gennady throwing more jabs than power punches on average in each of their last five fights. However, a closer look at the data reveals that Gennady’s punch output after the seventh round becomes flat / range bound with an average of 60 total punches. On the contrary, Canelo’s average total punch output increases rapidly from round to round, signaling that Canelo has conserved energy in the earlier rounds and comes on stronger as the fight goes on. Which dovetails into my next point:

Gennady Golovkin

Gennady Doesn’t Swim Well in Deep Water

Canelo will win the later rounds convincingly as his punch output increases and Gennady’s age begins to play a factor. We saw this occur most recently in the Golovkin vs. Danny Jacobs fight, where Danny Jacobs landed twice as many punches in rounds seven through twelve, than he did in rounds one through six. The fight going into the later rounds has to favor the more youthful Canelo Alvarez. Moreover, Gennady has only had one fight that has gone past the eight round; Canelo has had three, since his fight against Floyd Mayweather.

CANELO ALVAREZ will defeat Gennady Golovkin by a close majority decision, in what will turn out to be the best fight we’ve seen in the last ten years.

Canelo Does Not Fear Golovkin

Other than Danny Jacobs, Canelo is the only other fighter that Gennady will face that does not fear him. Yes, Gennady hits hard and yes he has 33 knockouts at middleweight, but Canelo has had devastating knockouts as well at junior middleweight. The one question that remains to be seen tomorrow night is if Canelo’s power will transfer as he moves up in weight class. Canelo seems to think so, but his ability to get Gennady  to respect his power tomorrow night will tell the tale.

Canelo Alvarez #2

Canelo Will Keep The Fight In the Middle of the Ring

If there is one thing that Canelo can learn from the two fighters that have actually made a fight interesting against Golovkin (Danny Jacobs and Kell Brook), it should have been that he needs to keep the fight in the middle of the ring. Canelo will use his footwork, and ring smarts to keep the fight in the middle of the ring. Canelo is a far better all-around boxer in the middle of the ring, than Golovkin is. If he allows Golovkin to press him towards the ropes, this will spell trouble for Canelo.

We have the three judges scorecards coming in at 114-114, 115-113, 115-113 in favor of Canelo Alvarez.

So, you heard it here first that EightCount.TV is predicting a majority decision victory for Canelo Alvarez. This will be a slugfest with both fighters jockeying fighting to control the range, the pace of the fight and overall ring generalship. Both fighters are like bulls, and neither will back down. Get ready fight fans, this is going to be a WAR!!!!

Tune into HBO Pay-Per-View tomorrow night and watch Saul Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady “GGG” Golovkin live from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Follow Eightcount.tv on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.